Spend by year
Chart. Use the left and right arrow keys to move between years; Home and End select the first and last year; Escape hides the reading.
From buyers to annual demand
Inventory spending comes first. Migration spending follows the selected timing profile; deadlines help explain that profile, rather than determine it.
Annual values and chart controls
In the chart, the left and right arrow keys move one year, Home and End select the first and last year, and Escape hides the reading.
The bottom-up build
Organisation counts × unit cost × cost multiplier × share migrating × vendor share, with hyperscaler substitution removed from migration.
S Sourced: a public record. A Assumption, or derived from one. Select a count or a unit cost to open its record.
How the unit costs are set
What moves the total
Chart. Use the up and down arrow keys to move between drivers; Escape hides the reading.
Sensitivity values
Deadlines that set the timing
Dates as each source states them. A foreign deadline is context for Australian buyers, not an Australian legal obligation.
Against the published forecasts
Annual flows on one basis: each global forecast is scaled to Australia and converted to Australian dollars. A cumulative Australian total is never set against one year of global revenue.
Chart. Use the left and right arrow keys to move between years; Home and End select the first and last year; Escape hides the reading.
Forecast values and comparison basis
Market map
Deal comparisons
Financing, acquisitions, valuations and infrastructure plans are different evidence. Undisclosed is not zero.
Risks to the thesis
The model makes uncertainty visible; it does not remove it.
Method notes
A checkable estimate rests on explicit boundaries, not just a headline.
Sources and access dates
Downloads
The memo sets out the evidence; the workbook exposes the inputs and formulas.